NLL Playoff Race

Discussion in 'NLL News and Rumors' started by BlackBandits, Apr 16, 2017.

  1. BlackBandits

    BlackBandits Member

    Standings

    Swarm 11-4, East Division Champions
    Wolves 8-8
    Rock 8-8
    Bandits 6-10
    Hawks 5-10

    Stealth 10-5
    Mammoth 9-7
    Stealth 7-9
    Roughnecks 7-10

    Playoff Scenarios for Week 17

    Georgia, already clinched playoff berth, home playoff game, East Division Champions

    Wolves clinch playoff berth with win (9-8). This would eliminate Rochester and Buffalo
    Rock clinch playoff berth with win (9-8). This would eliminate both Buffalo and Rochester

    Buffalo stays in contention with win (7-10) and Toronto loss (8-9)
    could still catch Toronto, h2h.

    Rochester stays in contention with win (6-10) and Toronto loss (8-9)

    Saskatchewan clinched playoff berth and home playoff game.
    Colorado clinched playoff berth.
    Vancouver can clinch playoff with vs Colorado in Week 17.
    Calgary is idle in Week 17, eliminated if the Stealth beat Mammoth in Week 17
     
  2. Andrew GEA

    Andrew GEA Guest

    Wow I wasn't sure if it was possible but Vancouver making it to the post season would be crazy!
     
  3. Corporal

    Corporal Active Member

    I believe I have it all figured out.

    East

    Remaining Games
    BUF - GA/TOR
    NE - ROC/VAN
    ROC- NE/GA/GA
    TOR - SAK/BUF

    TOR & NE in if they win one game. BUF & ROC eliminated if they lose one game

    BUF/NE/ROC/TOR finish 8-10

    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 6-3 BUF 5-5 ROC 5-5 TOR 3-6 NE wins - 2nd
    2nd tiebreaker resets to H2H BUF 4-3 ROC 3-3 TOR 3-4 BUF wins - 3rd
    3rd tiebreaker resets to H2H TOR 2-1 ROC 1-2 TOR wins 4th
    ROC 5th

    BUF/NE/TOR finish 8-10
    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 4-1 BUF 4-3 TOR 1-5 NE wins - 2nd
    2nd tiebreaker resets to H2H BUF 3-1 TOR 1-3 BUF wins - 3rd
    TOR -4th ROC 5th

    NE/ROC/TOR finish 8-10
    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 4-2 ROC 3-4 TOR 2-3 NE wins - 2nd
    2nd tiebreaker resets to H2H TOR 2-1 ROC 1-2 TOR wins - 3rd
    ROC - 4th BUF 5th

    BUF/ROC/TOR finish 8-10 - NE is 2nd with win over VAN
    1st tiebreaker H2H BUF 4-3 ROC 3-3 TOR 3-4 BUF wins - 3rd
    2nd tiebreaker resets to H2H TOR 2-1 ROC 1-2 TOR wins 4th
    ROC 5th

    NE/BUF finish 8-10 - TOR is 2nd with win over SAK
    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 2-1 BUF 1-2 NE wins 3rd
    BUF - 4th ROC 5th

    NE/ROC finish 8-10 - TOR is 2nd with a win
    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 2-2 ROC 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker Divisional Records NE 7-6 ROC 7-6
    3rd tiebreaker H2H goal differential
    ROC 15-8 ROC +7
    NE 10-9 ROC +6
    NE 12-11 ROC +5
    So in this scenario, ROC would beat NE next weekend and win H2H goal differential - ROC wins 3rd​
    NE 4th BUF 5th

    NE/TOR finish 8-10
    1st tiebreaker H2H NE 2-0 TOR 0-2 NE wins 2nd
    TOR -3rd followed up by ROC & BUF

    BUF/TOR finish 8-10 -NE is 2nd with a win

    1st tiebreaker H2H BUF 2-2 TOR 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker Divisional Records BUF 6-7 TOR 4-7 BUF wins 3rd
    TOR 4th ROC 5th

    ROC/TOR finish 8-10 - NE is 2nd with win over VAN

    1st tiebreaker H2H TOR 2-1 ROC 1-2 TOR wins 3rd
    ROC 4th BUF 5th
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2017
  4. Corporal

    Corporal Active Member

    West

    Remaining Games
    SAK - TOR/CAL/COL
    COL - VAN/SAK
    VAN - COL/NE
    CAL - SAK

    SAK wins division with one win - will finish one or two
    COL - will finish one, two or three - one win clinches home playoff game
    VAN - will finish two, three or four
    CAL - will finish third or fourth - can only clinch 3rd if they beat SAK & VAN loses both of their remaining games

    SAK beats COL then SAK wins division
    COL wins division if they win out & SAK loses out

    SAK/COL finish 11-7 with SAK win over TOR
    1st tiebreaker H2H SAK 2-2 COL 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker divisional record SAK 7-4 COL 5-6 SAK wins 1st
    COL 2nd

    SAK/COL finish 11-7 with SAK win over CAL
    1st tiebreaker H2H SAK 2-2 COL 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker divisional record SAK 8-3 COL 5-6 SAK wins 1st
    COL 2nd

    SAK/COL finish 10-8 with COL win over SAK
    1st tiebreaker H2H SAK 2-2 COL 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker divisional record SAK 7-4 COL 4-7 SAK wins 1st
    COL 2nd

    COL/VAN finish 9-9
    1st tiebreaker H2H VAN 3-1 COL 1-3 VAN wins 2nd
    COL 3rd CAL 4th

    CAL/VAN finish 8-10 or 7-11
    1st tiebreaker H2H VAN 3-1 CAL 1-3 VAN wins 3rd
    CAL 4th
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2017
  5. Vin

    Vin Well-Known Member

    Welcome back John!
     
  6. BlackBandits

    BlackBandits Member

    BUF/TOR finish 8-10 -NE is 2nd with a win
    1st tiebreaker H2H BUF 2-2 TOR 2-2
    2nd tiebreaker Divisional Records BUF 6-7 TOR 4-7 BUF wins 3rd
    TOR 4th ROC 5th

    If BUF and TOR finish tied 08-10 and NE is 2nd,

    1st tiebreaker is h2h and Buffalo wins 3 games to 1. Buffalo won in Toronto on Friday and also beat Toronto earlier this season.
    So no 2nd tiebreaker is needed.
     
  7. Vin

    Vin Well-Known Member

    I suspect that this may be wrong.... (with emphasis on "may").
    Years ago, we did "resets" on the tie-breakers and John's analysis is correct.
    However, the way the Media Guide is written discussing tie-breakers (Page 4), "the reset" may not apply.
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/nllassets/2017NLLMediaGuideFinal.pdf

    If the reset does not apply, then NBW = E2 but TOR = E5 because they are the lowest in the H2H among the 4.
    However, since BUF and ROC finished 5-5 in the H2H among the 4, they'd still need a tie-breaker. Again, I am not 100% sure which applies, but it won't matter...
    If just the H2H between BUF and ROC, then ROC 2-1.
    If East Division record, then ROC 7-6 to BUF 6-7. (See chart.)
    Either way, ROC = E3, BUF = E4

    Discussion18APR2017.png

    As can be seen in the chart, if we still used the old methodology, yes, after NBW is determined as E2, then the 3-way H2H would yield BUF=E3. Then, it would just be the tie-breaker between Toronto and Rochester which Toronto wins.

    So, the question is whether Toronto is eliminated in that first tie-breaking procedure. I suspect from Example B-3 in the Media Guide that that may be the case.

    This would be a very good example to add to the Media Guide going forward.
     
  8. Wingsfan23

    Wingsfan23 Member

    A black wolves win in Rochester matched with a rock loss in Saskatchewan would lock NE in second place and they would host the first rd of the playoffs
     
  9. chuckster

    chuckster Well-Known Member

    On paper, those both seem realistic but this is the NLL so anything can happen including 2.....yes, 2.....8-10 teams in the same division making the playoffs.
     
    Wingsfan23 and smurf666 like this.
  10. Wingsfan23

    Wingsfan23 Member

    I would be shocked if the rush **** the bed at home on back to back weeks
    NE shouldn't lose, but they have been so damn inconsistent this year it wouldn't shock me
     
  11. Vin

    Vin Well-Known Member

    Can someone contact Rob Benson at the league office about the ambiguity regarding a possible 4-way tie in the East? I'd do it myself, but I am stuck in a lab and can't.
    Basically, in a 4-way tie with BUF, NBW, ROC, TOR all 8-10, the old tie-breaking methodology would have given us:

    2E: NBW
    3E BUF
    4E TOR
    5E ROC

    However, under a different interpretation of the Media Guide's tie-breaking procedures, it would be
    2E: NBW
    3E ROC
    4E BUF
    5E TOR

    This is because, according to the Media Guide, in the initial 4-team H-2-H, NBW finishes first, ROC and BUF are tied, and TOR finishes last. Is TOR then determined as 5E?
    According to Corporal ("John") and the way we used to do things, we have NBW be 2E, and then start over with all three remaining teams. That would result in BUF being 3E.
    Basically, the 2 different interpretations have ramifications for BUF and ROC.
     
  12. Vin

    Vin Well-Known Member

    For the KHawks to make the playoffs, one of two scenarios needs to happen:
    1. ROC defeats GEO twice, NBW loses to VAN, TOR loses to BUF.
      In this case, NBW, ROC, TOR all finish 8-10. In this scenario, NBW = E2, ROC = E3, TOR = E4. This is because, in the H2H among the 3 teams, NBW is 4-2, ROC is 3-4, TOR is 2-3. Since ROC's winning percentage (0.4286) is higher than TOR's (0.4000), ROC = E3 > TOR = E4.

    2. ROC defeats GEO twice, NBW loses to VAN, TOR wins over BUF.
      In this case, TOR finishes 9-9 as E2, but NBW and ROC finish 8-10. In their H2H, they are both 2-2. So, the next tie-breaker is division record and both would be 7-6. So, the next tie-breaker is goal differential in their H2H games. ROC has 50 goals and NBW has 43, so ROC = E3 > NBW = E4.
    Notice the commonality though:
    Not only must ROC defeat GEO twice, but NBW must also lose to VAN. Thus, NBW has a magic number of 1 with ROC.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017
  13. Andrew GEA

    Andrew GEA Guest

    All I'm hearing is that for tor to be out roc has to beat Georgia twice.
     
  14. Vin

    Vin Well-Known Member

    For Toronto to be out:
    Rochester must win twice AND
    New England must lose AND
    Toronto must lose.

    In other words, the "All 8-10 Scenario". That's "#1" above in the previous post:

    ROC defeats GEO twice, NBW loses to VAN, TOR loses to BUF.
    In this case, NBW, ROC, TOR all finish 8-10. In this scenario, NBW = E2, ROC = E3, TOR = E4. This is because, in the H2H among the 3 teams, NBW is 4-2, ROC is 3-4, TOR is 2-3. Since ROC's winning percentage (0.4286) is higher than TOR's (0.4000), ROC = E3 > TOR = E4.
     

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