STH Census

Discussion in 'NLL News and Rumors' started by Vin, Jun 5, 2017.

  1. Vin

    Vin Active Member

  2. RockyMaivia

    RockyMaivia Member

    The Ardmore Aardvark wonders where they got the 25,000 number. It doesn't take a genius to realize most of that is Bandits STH, but even with that in mind I think 25,000 is too high.

    I would venture to guesstimate that the Rock have no more than 6,000 (I think it's closer to 5,000) and the Knighthawks probably have at most 3,500. I'd assume the Bandits have....10,000ish?

    Sure doesn't seem to me that the western New York/southern Ontario GOLDEN HORSESHOE has 25,000 sweaty, passionate, love making STHers in this region.
     
  3. chuckster

    chuckster Well-Known Member

    I think the Rock are around 7k, the Bandits at 11K, the Hawks at 5k. 23k is "around" 25k, I guess.
     
  4. 30seconds

    30seconds Member

    Average attendance for the rock was 9200. I dont think the STH are any where near 7k
     
    smurf666 likes this.
  5. Snider4theWin

    Snider4theWin Member

    Not a chance the rock are at 7k and Rochester at 5k especially Rochester who had games under 6k this year. Doubtful they are only selling a few hundred seats for a game to non STH
     
  6. Vin

    Vin Active Member

    When you are not selling out or having a special event, walk-ups are only so-so meaning that the bulk of your attendance is STHers. Just as a back of the envelope estimate calculation, I would take the average attendance of each team, multiply that by about 0.8 and that would be the estimate of STHers for that team.

    These were the average regular season attendances in 2017 for those 3 teams along with that estimate....

    HorseshoeSTHEstimate.png

    Wow! My 0.8 factor turned out to be a pretty consistent with the 25k number that the story asserted.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  7. smurf666

    smurf666 Guest

    I think I remember reading that Toronto, in the first half of last decade had around 9,000 season tickets.

    There is no frigging way that there are still 85% that many.
     
  8. RockyMaivia

    RockyMaivia Member

    The Ardmore Aardvark says no way indeed. Creeping around the Rock forum, I saw that the Rock sometimes had less than 6,000 seats sold the week of a game this season, which tells me it's impossible to have 6,000 season ticket holders.

    Unless, of course, there's one of them there bizarro formula thingamajigs where partial season ticket holders are counted as 0.5 season ticket holders. Then perhaps possibly the Rock could have 6,000+ ticket pack holders, but by zero means necessary, or unnecessarily, do the Rock have 6,000 full season ticket holders these days.
     
  9. Vin

    Vin Active Member

    I can believe that there are because STHers are more hardcore than walk-ups, so, when you have a decline in attendance, percentage-wise, it will be more in terms of walk-up than STHer.

    In other words, as the team declines, the walk-up will decline further than the STH. This is due to walk-up being game-to-game optional but STH is locked in and STH purchases are made pre-season and are based mostly on performance the previous season. So, as a fraction of attendance, STH's %age will increase over WU. With multi-year declines, yes, STH will trail off of course and WU's loss will have stabilized in which case the STH will later stabilize too down to the hardcore STHers who take many years to kill off.
     
  10. Vin

    Vin Active Member

    We also have to keep in mind the nebulous nature of attendance. Seats paid for may count even if bodies aren't sitting in those seats.
     
  11. Vin

    Vin Active Member

    A really good question to ask is to ask the Hamilton paper where they got that 25k figure from.
     
  12. smurf666

    smurf666 Guest

    ^^that is the only question that matters. I am certain Toronto does not have 7600 whatever season seats, and equally certain that Rochester does not have a number that complements the total up to 25k with Buffalo's 11 or 12k.

    that 25k might be the number in the all time season seat holders databases for all three teams.
     
  13. RockyMaivia

    RockyMaivia Member

    The Ardmore Aardvark would think that if this is the total of all-time (as in, 26 years of Buffalo, 20 years of Rochester, and 20 years of Toronto) then that number would actually be much greater than 25,000 when you factor in that Buffalo probably had at least 12,000 STH, Toronto probably had 9,000, and Rochester probably had 5,000 respectively in their prime years. That alone equals 26,000, and with new honkies coming and going as STHers, I'd think that all-time the three teams would probably have a grand total of 35,000+ season ticket holders, even if you're just counting people that had season tickets for a single year before deciding "**** this **** in the ass" and moving onto better and more productive things with their adult lives.
     
  14. smurf666

    smurf666 Guest

    I am certain there have been more than 25k season seat holders over the years, but......... perhaps all this leaves teams with 25k database elements in 2017.
     
  15. Vin

    Vin Active Member

    Here is the estimate for league-wide STHer counts...

    STH_EST.png

    So, just going by that 80% estimate - that 80% of a team's average attendance is STHers, this gives over 68072 STHers league-wide as shown in the left table.

    In the right table is an estimate of the NLL STHers using several different fractions.
    What we see though is that, realistically, if half of those in attendance were STHers, then the league has over 42000 STHers.

    If we the assume only half of those have NLL TV, then we still have at least 21000 NLL TV subscribers. At about $30 a pop, that's $630,000.
     
  16. k-hawksfan33

    k-hawksfan33 Active Member

    Im fairly certain Rochester includes "lax pack" (5 out of the 9 games) buyers in their season tickets holder count. If Buffalo and Toronto did the same I could easily see the 25k number being fairly accurate.
     
  17. smurf666

    smurf666 Guest

    i would believe that something approaching half of season seat holders have an nlltv account (free for first couple of weeks...)

    would be very surprised if that many forked over a credit card no. and permission to charge it.
     
  18. smurf666

    smurf666 Guest

    either way, thats a boring number because im counting a handful of crumbs that were already there


    the intriguing number for me is unique, non season seat holders that clicked a twitter link and watched for longer than 2 minutes.

    another intriguing number would be the number that watched a second game
     

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