what type of attendance would be a success?

Discussion in 'Philadelphia Wings Forum' started by BenMitchell, Feb 4, 2018.

  1. BenMitchell

    BenMitchell Member

    In their first year, what is the attendance number you think the Wings want to consider the first year a success?
  2. Tom Wersderfer

    Tom Wersderfer Active Member

    Probably around 9,000 to 10,000 or so I would guess. I know in the old days that around 10,000 was the break-even point but that included having to pay rent to the arena. With Comcast owning the team and the building the profit margin is higher and break-even point lower because all the profit is going in Comcast's pocket.

    I believe that crowds of 15,000 or more per game just like in the old days is possible within a year or two.
  3. AmericanRockFan

    AmericanRockFan Well-Known Member

    As much fun as this would be, I'll believe it when I see it. I really do hope that Wings 3.0 draw well at the gate, but I can't see an expansion team drawing 15,000 plus in only year 2 unless Comcast is really pimping the **** out of the team right now.
  4. chuckster

    chuckster Well-Known Member

    Only if the team comes out winning like the Vegas Golden Knights are doing. I think Comcast will get bodies in the seats early on but if the product sucks, it won't last.
  5. WingsNut423566

    WingsNut423566 Active Member

    They will probably settle between 8-10 K to start. Question becomes though how far will attendance drop when the team starts sucking.
  6. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    Of the 15k fans you used to have:

    -I don't have age/demographic stats and, I only pretend to be an actuary at parties, but, in five odd years until the Wings start up again, I figure at least 5% have passed to the great beyond,

    -a sizeable percentage of whomever was left at the end has had several years to find other **** to do and start new chapters in their lives, and won't ever be back regularly.

    -more than 50% quit coming while the team was still here and they have had even longer to carry on with living, and find other **** to do......my guess is you will see even lower percentage of those folks ever again. A lot will fondly remember the pro wrestling days of this league before anyone even knew concussions were bad for you, and, before the league took away rules for offball hitting, and started calling penalties for lacrosse plays......If they watch the Wings lose today's less frenetic, lower contact version of the sport while sober, they will never come back.

    I think 15K is a pipe dream, unless you slash prices, market AGGRESSIVELY, put games on TV, go .700 or better at home and on TV, and, "luck out" enough to start operations in a year where the Eagles, Flyers, and Sixers all suck donkey balls.
  7. AmericanRockFan

    AmericanRockFan Well-Known Member

    I think RockStar hit the nail on the head. Otherwise, the only quick way I see to 15,000 is if Comcast heavily papers the crowd and uses the Wings solely to get some extra parking/concession revenue with the occasional merchandise sale thrown in for good measure.
  8. MILLwasbetter

    MILLwasbetter Well-Known Member

    If the wings price tickets reasonably they could see 12-15k crowds. San Diego has season tickets starting at $70 for the season. With the arena and team being owned by the same team, they should make the wings their weekend toy and just have fun with it. Pack the place.
  9. jstraw80

    jstraw80 Active Member

    The Wings moved to NE and folded in Philly with around 5,ooo per game, something like that. You can't expect them to double this right off the bat.
  10. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    Comcast can paper the F out of this if they want to - stacks of freebies to Flyers ticket buyers, BOGO promos, etc.

    This said, the old fan base has moved on, the target market has limited history with a winning team in town, and, this sport just isn't what the other casual fans are going to remember from MILL and early days of NLL.

    First game is full. If they win a rough game convincingly, maybe the second is too. If they do not.........well, this will exist as long as Comcast wants it to.
  11. jstraw80

    jstraw80 Active Member

    I have a feeling that if I go to individual games, instead of season tickets, that I will save a boat load of money. I anticipate lots of free and discounted tickets around, with season ticket holders getting the shaft. Season tickets should be buy one get one for the season, that'll fill the place!
  12. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    I am betting deals will abound. If you want to go cheap, wait for them to announce flex packs etc. Get those to cover the first few games, and read the tea leaves for the rest of the season

    Even when the place was full in Toronto, there were enough comps making their way to the hands of the scalpers........if you didn't care where you sat, you could get in for less than season price every night.

    During the dregs of Buffalo's despair, you could get lower bowl seats for $10 on the street, or $17 Canadian at the window for games involving northern teams.....at the time, that was pretty well the same thing.
  13. JB1

    JB1 Member

    It's an interesting question. The Wings became a success and we something incredible from 1987 up until the mid 2000's. It started out as an alternative for the heavy metal crowd who may have been bored with the 4 major sports. I remember how they used to advertise on WMMR and WYSP, but didn't really advertise much on the sports stations, since they weren't marketing to sports fans. The people who stuck with rooting for the Wings over the years were once part of that crowd but then got married and had kids, but still kept their loyalty to the Wings. But as the team stopped winning, it just became another minor league sports team and wasn't anything special anymore. It will be a huge challenge for Comcast Spectacor to figure out who their niche market is and how to get them into the arena. The niche market in 2018 is not necessarily the same as it was in the late 80's and 90's.
    MILLwasbetter likes this.
  14. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    This is just it.

    Philly caught lightning in a bottle in the late 80s, Buffalo in the early 90s, Toronto in the late 90s, and Colorado a few years later. (F, I feel old on that fact!)

    The time between then and now is roughly equal to the time between the start of the EPBLL and Colorado entering the league.

    I am not sure what a marketing maven has to do to fill the place, but, I think today's 22 year old is wired a wee bit differently than the 22 year old of 15 whatever years ago, and, maybe a damned sight differently than the guy that turned 22 in the early 90s. There's just more to do and less time to do it all

    My estimate is that it will be fairly easy to get 4500 of the old fan base back, but, the rest will never be back for more than occasional visits.

    Getting enough newbs in to break 10K consistently for the first five years is a tall order if you're counting on them to pay $30 average or so.

    If you paper the F out of it, 10K should be quite do-able, but, you'll eventually **** off your season ticket base enough that they all quit, and camp on the comps as well.
  15. chuckster

    chuckster Well-Known Member

    Papering the house never works well in the long run. People get hooked on the freebies and then don't want to pay because you've conditioned them to look for the freebies. It may be tempting to get people in the door and then get their money in food and merch but that's not a sustainable model.
    swami24 likes this.
  16. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    Agree on the papering. You cannot have a reliable supply of extremely low cost or no cost tickets lasting for several games if you ever hope to have anyone pay.

    So, what would I do to paper for the first year?

    I'd run a free November pre-season game, start time 1 to 1.5h after a Flyers Saturday matinee, have Wings ticket agents selling seasons in the concourse, and leave the box office open for 1h after the Wings

    Gift one voucher to every Flyers STH, redeemable for a pair as close as possible to their own seats.

    Hand a buy-two-get-one-free card to every Flyers patron for the two weeks leading up to the Wings home opener.

    In-house ads on video board during Flyers, Sixers, other events.

    Offer a buy-two-get-one-free deal for everyone who brings a last game's stub to the ticket window.

    Offer pro-rated rest-of-season tickets up until the end of game 5, at which time, offer four ticket flex packs for slightly higher than the season seat per-game price.

    Then, in year two if crowds are good-ish, start "removing the stimulus".
    MILLwasbetter likes this.
  17. RockStar

    RockStar Well-Known Member

    (or, if you figure that the patrons are paying for 6 to 10K parking spots at $15 a head, and might spend an extra $25 a head on beer, food, merchandise, and other crap if they didn't have to pay for a ticket.......maybe you do just give the STHs a great deal on primo seats and paper the shtt out of the cheap seats......)
  18. swami24

    swami24 Well-Known Member

    Fyi, lil swami brought a freind along to Fridays game. She had never heard of the league, but enjoyed the game. So there is one case saying it can still appeal to the 22 yrs. old crowd.
  19. swami24

    swami24 Well-Known Member

    The in game presentation is going to be modeled after Flyers in game presentation.
  20. AmericanRockFan

    AmericanRockFan Well-Known Member

    I brought a friend in her late 30s to the game in Toronto a couple weeks back. She had never been to a game, nor do I think she'd seen one on tv either, but she told me later she had fun and was tempted to go again. So at least there's potential in the 35-49 demographic as well!

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